Tuesday, July 22, 2008
The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!
But what about our government? Won’t the government tell us the real story?
John Williams has something to say about that.
Actually, he has quite a bit to say, that can be found at-
http://www.shadowstats.com/
Specifically about money supply, unemployment and consumer inflation, where he has charts with different, and arguably significantly more accurate and realistic statistics.
Why should you give any credence to his numbers? Doesn’t the government know best?
Well, the government, the worse things get, changes the definitions of what they are reporting to make things look better than they really are. Williams does the dirty, underhanded, sneaky trick of calculating things using... the formulas the government used to use a few years ago, before those formulas revealed too much of the unstable foundation of the American economy. Take a look here-
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
He also has a report where he argues for a hyperinflationary period in the US in the near future, here-
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292
Read em and weep.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Gas Prices, a Hard Pill to Swallow
To a nation born of a revolt against taxation without representation, our silent acceptance of surreptitious taxation without notification through currency devaluation bespeaks the vast gulf between Americans now and at the birth of our nation or between our government at its inception and now, or, most likely, both.
There are two things going on here, one with the dollar, the other with the oil.
The situation with the dollar can be summed up as monetization of government debt through enthusiastic printing of fiat currency.
In a nutshell, let us assume that there are 10 dollars in circulation in the whole world and you have 5 and the government has 5. You have, with your 5 dollars, half of the purchasing power of all the dollars in the world. But, the government wants to do something that will cost 15 dollars. So it cranks up the old printing press and cranks out 10 extra dollars. Now the government has 15 dollars, and can do what it wants to do. You still have 5 dollars, but only one quarter of the purchasing power of all the dollars in the world, once word gets around about all those extra dollars. Half of your purchasing power just disappeared.
This is one of the things going on with money today, except the amount stolen is significantly more than half, resulting in the de facto US government theft of the savings, investments, retirement accounts and current purchasing power of American citizens.
If you think that this whole money printing thing is pretty neat, note that what is good for the goose is most definitely not good for the gander; you will be punished greatly if you try this trick on your own…
The situation with oil is simply that every day there is less than there was the day before, and what is left is getting more expensive to get to market.
U.S. Representative Rosa DeLauro, while righteously voting for programs that are paid for by government theft, points the accusing finger for the consequences of her actions at the clever folks who have figured out the dirty game.
In other words, the people, who make wise and legal choices to protect themselves and their loved ones from financial hardship and even calamity, are the enemies of every good American citizen who suffers from the severe, and soon to be catastrophic devaluation of savings, investments, retirement accounts and current purchasing power.
The threat implied is that when people get angry at paying twice as much for groceries and fuel as they did a year or two ago, and decide to riot in the streets, they should take it out on their speculating neighbors, and not their government, since taking it out on their government is most definitely not in our governments best interest. And the US government is here to serve its own interests, not ours; I think that’s in the constitution somewhere...
Now you are ready to understand the article below, where the government stooge Rosa DeLauro explains how those who have taken decidedly un-sheep-like steps to protect themselves financially from government theft, are the real reason that gas prices are rising.
http://www.courant.com/news/nationworld/hc-ctdelaurooil0712.artjul12,0,1055799.story
My favorite part is where the Emissary of Evil, Walter Lukken, acting chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed, in a pretty straight forward way, the issue-
“We do see supply-and-demand causing all these price changes," he testified — not the cash influx from speculators.
In an elegant and virtually unassailable rebuttal, our heroine Rosa firmly puts the bad man in his proper place, by shrieking, “Won’t someone think about the children?” while waving her arms about.
Be warned, dear consumer, the red pill is bitter, and turns you into evil, economy destroying zombies, who unfairly insist, with their maggot riddled brains, in buying low and selling high and denying the greater good of financial self-sacrifice that can be found by investing in more proper markets.
Red pill available at-
My advice, Dear Reader?
Take the blue pill; it tastes like…
...Bliss
Practice Now, Live Later: Avoiding Victimhood
Avoiding Victimhood, a Skills-Based Approach
Throughout most of human history, things have not been as good as they are now. Poverty and violence have been more of the norm of human existence than our current lavish and violence free lifestyle.
As things get more difficult, the culture of selfishness that pervades America today will lead more people to abandon civilized behavior, and take what they desire by force.
There are several approaches to minimizing the chances of this happening to you, and also several groups of skills that will mitigate or, hopefully obviate, the effects of a violent confrontation on you or those you love.
Some of the most basic are to gain skills with the five ranges of combat. They are-
The Five Ranges of Combat
1. Relson Gracie
2. Rob Kaman
3. Marc Denny
4. Gabe Suarez
5. Simo Hayha
I know, I know, those are people, not ranges. Figure it out. If you can’t, there’s no hope for you anyway. If you can, pay especial attention to numbers 2 and 4, which are the most likely to be the most valuable, in most situations, for most people.
If you are of the opinion that violence is terrible, you are most assuredly correct.
However, if you or someone you love is violently attacked, there are no pleasant options.
It is less terrible to violently stop an unwarranted attack on an innocent victim than it is to allow a violent attack on an innocent victim. Sometimes, those are your only options. You should be prepared to choose correctly
Like all survival skills, the time to master them is now, when you may do so at your leisure, rather than in the heat of the moment, when you require them. If you do not master the skills in easy times, you will not have them, nor, most likely, the ability to master them, in times of distress. That is often fatal.
Practice now, live later.
Business as Usual
Dear Reader,
When I ramble on about our economic cholera or the horsemen in it’s wake, visible only now by the dust they raise from their hard ride, the question, or casual dismissal, even, is oft raised "If things were really that bad, why isn’t it all over the headlines”, and deserves an honest answer.
I’ll give you two.
First, it is in the news, from many different angles. It has been for years. The buy high and sell low crowd, which is a substantial majority, and which, statistically speaking, you are most likely a card-carrying member of, does not properly interpret the meaning, and therefore draws no useful conclusions.
Second, in the Great Depression, things really were that bad and it wasn’t all over the headlines. As described in the article below, the headlines of the Great Depression were the same as today; they were reading about what nonsense celebrities were engaged in, and meaningless puff pieces about business characters.
It will, once again, be as bad as it was then, and then it will get worse, for reasons I will elaborate on elsewhere.
For now, I invite you to take a look at the article- Five Things You Need to Know: The Modern Stealth Depression, by Kevin Depew, from Jul 16, 2008. You may find it here-
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/depression-california-housing-mortgage-time/index/a/18055
If you find yourself beginning to ask questions that you don’t have answers to, you may take the red pill, and begin your journey here-
http://www.shadowstats.com/
Monday, July 14, 2008
Preparedness
Prepared for what?
That is difficult to say.
Different places and different people in different situation have different things that they are more likely to need to be prepared for. To come up with an answer appropriate for you, you need to understand what kinds of things you may have to deal with.
Preparedness is being ready to deal with loss of the support systems that we take for granted. Being able to get safe, running water to drink from the faucet. Having a furnace heat your home. Having a grocery store to buy abundant, inexpensive food from. Being able to buy as much relatively inexpensive gasoline as you want, without waiting in lines for hours or days. Being able to go to a doctor. Calling for an ambulance. Calling for the police.
What would you do if these things were no longer available?
Being prepared means having a good answer; one that is doable and doable with what you have in your home right now.
As a good starting point, think about shelter, water and food.
For example, if it gets below freezing in winter, you need winter clothes and sleeping bags or blankets for everyone likely to be in your household.
As far as water goes, for a bare minimum for survival purposes, consider a gallon per person, per day. Double that to include minimal hygiene and cooking uses. Do you have pets or livestock? How much do they need to drink? If you have 4 people in your household and no pets or livestock, that works out to 4-8 gallons of water you need every day. How many days supply do you need? I don’t know. The basic answer is to have a much as you can practically afford. Emergency preparedness gurus talk about 3 days being the amount of time it takes rescue workers to come to the aid of people in a crisis. 3 days would be 12-24 gallons for the 4 people above, and would be the barest of minimums. 2 Weeks worth would be better. A month would be better still. 30 days of water for 4 people is in the neighborhood of 120-240 gallons. That is a lot of water. Water is heavy too, and there may be structural concerns about storing large amounts.
For food, the easiest thing to do is purchase extra food. What kind? Ideally, for short-term emergency use, I think that canned food is a very good choice. It is inexpensive, doesn’t require refrigeration or freezing, doesn’t require cooking, contains some water to lessen your water use, and generally stays edible for a few years. If you are able, purchase a week or two’s worth of canned food to eat. Try to stick to things your family already eats. If you cant afford to do that, purchase a few extra cans of things every time you go shopping. Then do FIFO rotation. If you eat 3 cans of beans every week, you should have 9 cans of beans, as an example. Every week buy 3 more cans of beans and put them on the shelf behind the 6 cans already there. That way, you are always eating the oldest cans, and nothing should be more that a few weeks old. Some people buy things and don’t use or rotate them and that means you will have to check and throw out or use hastily things every year or so. That is generally more of a hassle. Buy 3 nice, manual can openers.
Remember, in a crisis, your household may end up being more than your immediate family. Parents, siblings, friends may show up cold, thirsty and hungry. Are you ready for that?
If your area is subject to natural disasters, you should know what they are and what the likely consequences of them are, and be ready to deal with them.
A very general but detailed guide to this kind of preparedness is Crisis Preparedness Handbook: A Complete Guide to Home Storage and Physical Survival by Jack A. Spigarelli. It is a great place to start. Like all (so far) of the products I recommend, I have no financial relationship with Jack or his publisher. I’m not selling his book. I am recommending it because I think it is the most helpful one you can start with. Go get it, from a library if you have to.
Get moving.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Bang! You're Dead!
As things get more difficult, economically or otherwise, firearms tend to become more important. If you have not given much thought to them, now is a good time to begin to educate and prepare yourself so that you can make good decisions when the time comes to do so.
Here are some very basic things to get you started.
On one hand you don’t want to get shot.
On the other, in extremis, there are few options as effective at fending off an otherwise certain fate as a firearm in the hand of an intended victim.
Lastly (the other, other hand), they can be handy tools for hunting, pest control, etc.
A few words about the first two-
Don’t get shot
For starters, be aware of, avoid and mitigate dangerous environments, situations and people.
Reading the book, The Gift of Fear, by Gavin de Becker, is a great way to begin developing an awareness of some behaviors that some criminals use to trick their victims into increased vulnerability to violent attacks.
FERFAL lives in a more dangerous environment (Argentina) than most of us do at present, and writes about his thoughts and experiences, with a focus on staying safe. His blog is here-
http://www.ferfal.blogspot.com/
If you dig around on the net, you can find a bunch of his other writings that predate this blog.
Using a firearm for self defense
The pistol is the basic firearm for self defense. The National Rifle Association, or NRA, has been teaching safe and responsible firearm ownership and usage skills for well over 100 years. They have a respected and time-tested curriculum that their instructors use to teach people in person. Go to-
http://www.nrahq.org/education/training/basictraining.asp
-and sign up for the following NRA Basic Firearm Training Courses (instruction hours in parenthesis). Taking all of these can usually be done on several weekends over a few months, at a cost of a few hundred dollars. If you don’t own a firearm for a class that requires one, you can ask about borrowing or renting one. If you don’t own one, it would probably not be a bad idea to postpone purchasing one until you get some experience under your belt.
Home Firearm Safety (4 hours)
Basic Pistol (10 hours)
Personal Protection In The Home (8 hours)
Personal Protection Outside The Home (14 hours)
Now get started.
Survival In A Nutshell
Here is a superficial, quick review of survival basics.
This isn't meant to be the final word. This is meant to give good, usable information until you can make better decisions on your own.
Survival is usually taught with reference to “The Rule of Threes”-
You can live three minutes without air.
In a hostile environment, you can live three hours without shelter.
You can live for three days without water.
You can live for three weeks without food.
These are not so much absolutes as generally useful rules of thumb to help you prioritize your activities in a survival situation.
Learning survival skills usually begins with ensuring these basic needs are met.
There are two schools of thought when it comes to survival, with much overlap between them. The first is that some simple gear will make it much easier to come out of a survival situation ok, and that having a survival kit is the first line of defense in a survival situation.
The second is that you should not depend on gear, but instead you should be sufficiently knowledgeable and skilled in primitive and expedient survival techniques that you could be dropped naked into the wilderness without tools, supplies or even clothing, and have the skills to find and create what you need to survive.
The happy medium is to have a minimum of basic survival gear like shelter items, water carrying and purification items, a good knife and a way to make fire. Redundancy, if not cumbersome, is a valuable insurance policy against unexpected loss of use of primary survival gear. For example, having two or three methods of water purification and fire starting is a good idea. A familiarity with primitive and expedient skills functions as a backup in case of loss of gear.
Shelter can be as simple, inexpensive and light weight as a contractor’s garbage bag in your pocket, or some combination of things like a military surplus wool blanket, a cheap Home Depot poly tarp, a tube tent or even a backpacking tent or bivy sack with a sleeping bag inside. You specific situation will dictate what makes sense for you.
The simplest way to handle water needs is to have enough potable water on hand. How much is enough? About a gallon per day, for most people, in most environments. How many days will you need? I don’t know. How many days should you have? As many as you can. If you are on foot, that may only be a few quarts. If you are in your home, that might be a hundred gallons or more. If you need to gather water, you should do things that will make it more safe to drink. This can get complicated, and you should do your own homework, but a here is a few things to get you started-
Boiling water can make water safer to drink.
2 drops of common chlorine bleach per liter can make water safer to drink.
More details here-
http://www.epa.gov/OGWDW/faq/emerg.html
For small quantities of water you could use Katadyn Micropur purification tablets, which run about $15 for 20, each tablet treats 1 quart or liter of water. These could be kept in your survival kit, duct taped with a few feet of duct tape to your water bottle.
One of the best things to use is PolarPur, which is iodine based. A teeny little bottle, which runs about $10, will treat 500-5000 gallons of water, depending on how you use it. It takes a bit of knowledge to use it properly, so it isn’t a good choice for unsupervised children or adults who behave like unsupervised children.
Knives
Cold Steel makes a model called the Bushman, which is a very serviceable, fixed-blade (not a folding) survival knife that is about $20. The more expensive Cold Steel blades are very good as well. A multi-tool such as those made by Gerber or Leatherman may be more useful. I like the Leatherman Wave, which runs about $60-70. Swiss Army knives tend not to be as robust, with few exceptions.
The best place for you to begin learning survival skills is with some good videos, a few good books, practice, hands-on instruction from a qualified instructor, and lots more practice. Then more practice. Oh yeah, and don’t forget to practice.
People who practice these skills lots are the ones who die less often in survival situations.
The best way to start with videos is by picking up the complete set of Hoods Woods videos here-
http://www.survival.com/
Right now the complete set is $399. For most people, this is the best way to begin learning these skills. The videos are professionally done, and are great fun to watch and contain a great deal of information and quality instruction for the money. There are a number of survival experts out there with videos for sale. Some are good, and many are not that great. The Hoods Woods are the best there are right now, and I don’t think any others serve the purpose that these DVD’s do, nor as well as they do.
If $399 is too rich for your blood, you could start out with just these three, which would give you the most important, basic information and will cost you about $60 or so-
Volume 1 - Spark Based Fire Starting
Volume 2 - Survival Shelter Selection
Volume 3 - Making and Using your Outdoor Survival Kit
There are lots and lots of books about survival, but The Complete Book of Outdoor Survival by J. Wayne Fears, is, I believe, the best one to start with.
Outdoor Survival Skills, by Larry D. Olsen is also great, but with a more primitive bent. The sixth edition is the current one, as of this writing.
A handy and useful book is Build the Perfect Survival Kit, by John Mccann.
For primitive skills, the two books by John & Geri McPherson-
Primitive Wilderness Living & Survival Skills
and
Primitive Wilderness Skills, Applied & Advanced
-are top-notch.
Earth Knack, Stone Age Skills for the 21st Century, by Bart & Robin Blankenship is also incredibly good.
With these things, and practice, you will be well on your way to being well prepared to face most survival situations.